Investors who expected $ 80,000 and $ 100,000 in the short term in Bitcoin were shocked by the sharp declines incoming. Although it is not always possible to find the peak in Bitcoin, BTC gave the signal that it would fall when it did not technically exceed $ 58,000.
However, there is an indicator that gave the closest signal to the summit in all the bull markets experienced so far. This indicator, which reached a peak in 2013, 2014 and 2017, pointed to a peak of $ 60,000 in 2021.
The name of this indicator, developed by Philip Swift, is the “Pi Cycle Top” indicator.
What is the working principle of this indicator?
The Pi Cycle Top indicator is an indicator that uses developed moving averages to predict the market peak. The indicator, examined on the daily chart, uses the 111-day moving average and twice the 350-day moving average.
The 111-day moving average signals that the peak is coming at the point where the 350-day moving average crosses 2 times upward. The indicator states that with this intersection, the price is overheating and a major correction may come.
Dividing 350 by 111 gives a number like 3.153. Since this number is very close to Pi number 3,14, the name of the indicator has been determined as “Pi Cycle Top indicator”.
In the chart below, you can see the points where the 111-day moving average crosses twice the 350-day moving average in the bull cycles of 2013, 2017 and 2021. In Bitcoin, this intersection occurred at $ 60,000 levels, and Bitcoin fell 50% from those levels.